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HOUSING
​Guernsey's housing crisis isn't just that there aren't enough homes for the people that live here: in fact, it's a much more complex set of interrelated problems. These are driven by the huge increase in Guernsey's population, fuelling housing demand, coinciding with Brexit, Covid and the economic fallout of 2022, where costs and availability of materials, labour and finance suddenly became much more challenging, hampering supply. More detail can be found in the Guernsey Housing Plan and the Problem Identification Report, but here's a summary of some of the main issues, and what we've done, are doing or should in my view do about them...
PROBLEMS
Affordability​
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Despite a real-terms decrease since 2020, house prices are still around 14 times average earnings (down from more than 16 times average earnings a couple of years ago) which is well above the level considered sustainably affordable.
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Rents, by contrast, have seen a sharp real-terms increase over the last few years: average rents are now around 58% of average earnings, which is far higher than is considered sustainably affordable (spending up to 35% of income on rent is considered affordable). Affordability is even more of a problem for people on lower incomes, who often have to spend the vast majority of their earnings on rent. ​
Availability
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There aren't enough Affordable Homes (e.g. social rental, partial ownership, keyworker housing, extra care housing etc): there are around 250 eligible households on the waiting list for social rental housing, for example - and typically they will be paying very high rent in the private rental sector until a social rental property becomes available.
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In the general market, there aren't enough homes of the types and sizes that most people need - especially one- and two-bedroom homes, and homes that people can downsize into and manage easily as they get older.
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This affects efficiency: many homes are under-occupied with their owners keen to move somewhere smaller, whilst other households live in over-crowded conditions because they can't find anywhere bigger to move into. We also have a high rate of vacant homes that aren't available to the general market, usually because they're second homes or holiday lets.
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​There is so much more demand than supply in the rental sector that many people are having to pay more than they can comfortably afford in rent for a home that isn't necessarily good quality or doesn't necessarily suit their needs.
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In the Open Market, whether for sale or rent, there isn't currently enough choice to fully support professionals and entrepreneurs looking to relocate to Guernsey or for long-standing Open Market residents to downsize into.
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Quality
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The quality of housing, especially rented accommodation, has historically been very variable, with many great quality homes but also some unsafe properties.
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Energy efficiency is also likely to be highly variable, which costs householders money paying bills for energy that is wasted and contributes to poorer health and higher carbon emissions. ​​​​​​
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Security of Tenure
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Neither landlords nor tenants currently have sufficient legal protections with respect to issues such as deposits, repossession of the property, notice periods, children and pets, antisocial behaviour, non-payment of rent or huge rent increases.
SOLUTIONS
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Facilitate more housebuilding by working with landowners and developers to overcome the specific barriers site-by-site (this work is well underway and is having results - several big sites will soon come forward for planning permission as a consequence, yielding hundreds of new homes in the next few years);
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Establish a delivery-focused Housing Commission (my proposal to establish one earlier this year was narrowly defeated in favour of establishing an additional political committee instead), or at the very least a dedicated Housing Champion who can facilitate work between government and industry;
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Commit to the Affordable Housing Delivery Programme (from a standing start at the beginning of this political term, we now have about 450 affordable homes in the delivery pipeline, so our work with the Guernsey Housing Association is starting to pay off), which will provide more housing to more people to ease demand on the general market;
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Support the use of MMC - modern methods of construction (this work is also well progressed, including site-specific analysis of which types of MMC, for example 2D, 3D, volumetric, 3D printing etc, are best suited to particular housing development sites);
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Address homelessness, root and branch (we're already working with different charities to support them to prevent homeless at source and/or help people facing homelessness in practical ways, for example Action for Children (who have training flats for care leavers), Caring for Ex-Offenders (who help prisoners settle back into the community following their release), Safer (who support victims of domestic abuse, including through emergency accommodation), Caritas (who we're working with re: their pods and temporary housing plans) and At Home in Guernsey (who we're working on a homelessness strategy for the island);
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Implement the recommendations of the Downsizing Review (which we've already carried out and consulted on) to support people who want to move to a smaller home.
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Once supply of housing has stabilised at a higher level, introduce carefully thought-through support for first-time buyers that doesn't inflate the overall market.
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Reform the current system of rent subsidies for key workers, which inflates the rental market for everyone else - including local key workers (we have developed some proposals to tackle this problem which is currently out for consultation with relevant committees).
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Implement the new Open Market Inscriptions Policy (legislation for which has been approved by the States and is now awaiting Royal Assent);
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Remove the tax barriers for people buying to let, to stem the loss of rental accommodation into the private owner occupier market, which is what is happening now. (My proposal to remove the 2% document duty uplift for buy-to-lets in the last budget debate was strongly supported by the housing industry, but frustratingly not by the Assembly, so it wasn't approved and the document duty uplift remains in place);
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Introduce an escalation tax on needlessly vacant property (P&R's previous proposal was not workable so was effectively withdrawn from the States, but I think it is worth another attempt to get it right, learning from the work that Jersey and the Isle of Man have done in this respect).
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Introduce minimum housing standards for rental accommodation (legislation for which we have already approved - now just waiting for Royal Assent);
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Develop stronger legal protections for landlords and tenants (we've already carried out a public consultation, so there is a strong foundation for this work to be progressed early in the next political term) and introduce an independent ombudsman or tribunal system for housing disputes.
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Support energy efficiency improvements to help householders and landlords live more affordably and comfortably. ​
Nothing is more fundamental to our quality of life than our health, and the States has an important role to play in that which goes well beyond the provision and commissioning of health services - though that is of course a big part of it.
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Dr Nicola Brink MBE, our excellent director of public health, summarised her evidence-based view of the situation (which accords with my own long-held opinion, as set out in my 2016 and 2020 manifestos) when introducing her latest report, Investing in Tomorrow:
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"We cannot continue to focus on acute care at the expense of prevention. We need to shift the focus where prevention of disease and ill-health is given equal consideration to the management of acute conditions. If we don't our health and care services will become overwhelmed in the next 20 years. Impossibly difficult choices will need to be made - for example healthcare services may need to be rationed.
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"We also have to change the narrative from ill-health being a burden to good health being an economic enabler. Quite simply, a healthy population is a productive population. We need to have a longer-term vision and not just focus on short-term 'fixes'. If we don't, we will face a crisis within the next 20 years. The hospital that we are building now will not cope."
So much of our population's health is determined by wider factors which influence the choices people can make. While it's essential to maintain good primary and secondary care (GPs and hospital/specialist services), deputies in the next Assembly must look well beyond the four-year political horizon and focus now on the things that will improve quality of life in the near term and better manage the pressures on our health system longer term by reducing chronic preventable disease. This is especially important because on average we're all living longer, but not necessarily in good health. The States has a vital role in terms of making healthy lifestyles easier, through initiatives that encourage and enable:
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healthy eating - especially for families with young children and people struggling with the cost of living
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active lifestyles - for example infrastructure that makes non-motorised transport safer and more convenient
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smoking and vaping reduction - with a particular focus on young people, progressing the positive recent work
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healthier relationships with alcohol - across all age groups, with extra support for pregnant mums
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healthier relationships with others - reducing the prevalence of domestic and sexual violence
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good mental health - such as improving access not just to specialist services but also social connections and our natural environment
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returning to work after illness - supporting people through our flexible, proactive approach that is starting to pay dividends already
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longer independent living - through sustainable care and housing that people can manage comfortably as they get older
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dementia-friendly environments - for example through greater awareness and better planning
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affordable access to GPs - building on the real steps forward in making children's GP and Emergency Department visits more affordable
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and many more...
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There is a lot of great work taking place already, especially through Public Health and the Health Improvement Commission (with whom I have been quite involved), and the Supporting Occupational Health & Wellbeing programme (an initiative that, as Vice-President of ESS I am very proud of): the evidence suggests that this preventative approach is both effective and very cost-effective, so it is something I am keen to expand - not least because it will also improve people's quality of life in the short term too.
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While I'm a strong supporter of investing in preventative measures, it's also obviously important to invest in acute healthcare services too. The hospital modernisation programme and the electronic patient records programme are both key enablers, and the increasing focus on mental health is also something to continue to encourage and support.
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Long-term care is another huge priority, especially as the number of people aged over 85 is set to increase by 128% over the next three decades. As Vice-President of ESS, I was one of those that worked with the care home sector on proposals (which were supported by the States earlier this year) to increase their funding to help stabilise the sector and increase the care bed capacity that we need, but this is an area - along with care provided in people's own homes - that will need ongoing support to meet the needs of our community.
